Alexis Lafreniere signed a seven-year contract with a $7.45 million AAV with the New York Rangers on Oct.26, an agreement that seemed like a far cry a year ago.
The 23-year-old forward finally found his stride alongside superstar Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck last season, though, reaching an NHL career-high 57 points (28 goals, 29 assists) and delivering a jewel performance in the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs (14 points; eight goals, six assists).
His upward arc has continued this season with eight points (four goals, four assists) in nine games.
In the summer of 2023, Lafreniere signed a 2.325 x 2 deal following an invisible playoff series against the New Jersey Devils (0 points in seven games). Elliot Friedman the host of “32 Thoughts” and Sportsnet’s NHL insider stated, “I think if it’s another year like (last season), they’ll have to move on. To me, this is a two-year deal but it’s a one-year deal in New York and then we’ll see.”
Well. Lafreniere nailed that one-year window.
And in the past three seasons, Lafreniere ranks eighth in U-23 scoringwitht 98 points. Six players below rank slightly above Lafreniere in this measure, but his 58-point season helped jettison the Ranger’s highest draft pick in history into that conversation.
Lafreniere is often compared to his contemporaries because of his status as the 2020 No.1 overall. In five NHL seasons, it seemed that players in recent drafts were blossoming with less insulation in their respective lineups and Lafreniere was floundering on a contender.
That’s no longer the case.
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Comparing Rangers’ Alexis Lafreniere with his NHL contemporaries
Here is how Lafreniere’s new deal and numbers stack up against his contemporaries.
Quinton Byfield (Los Angeles Kings)
Contract: 5 years, $31,250,000//$6.25 million AAV
Career: 189 GP, 28 G, 21 EVG, 64 A, 92 PTS, +24 +/-, 7 PPG, 98 PIM
For a steaming hot second, it looked like Byfield’s breakout would stir the potential should-have-been-first-overall takes but Lafreniere ascended quickly enough to dampen those flames.
Byfield was on par with Lafreniere last season, recording 55 points (20 goals, 35 assists) subtly putting together a parallel career to the player selected before him.
This season he has five points in 10 games. The 22-year-old center is still finding consistency at the NHL level, but for the pivot’s massive frame (6-foot-5, 220 pounds) and skill in the most versatile position on the ice, a $6.25 AAV may value the best on this list in the future.
He’s making one million less than Lafreniere and could play just as important of a role with the Kings, each respectively poised to replace cornerstone players in Panarin and Anze Kopitar.
They are close in comparisons by career trajectory and contract, but Lafreniere leads by 51 goals, 118 games, and 64 points thus far.
Tim Stutzle (Ottawa Senators)
Contract: 8 year, $66,800,000//$8.35 million AAV
Career: 294 GP, 96 G, 165 A, 261 PTS, -62 +/-, 23 PPG, 69 EVG, 4 SHG, 723 SOG, 137 PIM
Stutzle, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft put Lafreniere to shame out of the gate. The Viersen, Germany native’s numbers are still overlooked and are staggering considering his age and situation with the ever-struggling Ottawa Senators.
Stutzle has bested Lafreniere at the dawn of their NHL careers, but power-play time and points must be considered in this conversation.
Lafreniere has played on a second power-play unit that is lucky to see the ice after the unit of Kreider-Panarin-Trocheck-Fox-Zibanejad unit has seized the man-up opportunities. Most of Lafreniere’s production is at even strength. Stutzle bests Lafreniere in four key stat categories- goals (by 17), assists (by 89), points (by 105), shots on goal (by 175).
Although, a fifth category slims down the margin between the two. Stutzle is deployed on the first power-play unit, and has 23 career goals a man up, and 27 goals overall on special teams. Lafreniere controversially does not play on the Rangers first power-play unit. If you subtract the 27 special-teams goals from Stutlze and look at all other situations, Stutzle has 69 goals. Lafreniere’s 79 goals trump that total.
Tsutzle’s contract continues to appreciate but with more certain production behind the extra $900,000.
Lucas Raymond (Detroit Red Wings)
Contract: 8 year, $64,600,000/ $8.075 million AAV
Career: 247 GP, 72 G, 110 A, 182 PTS, -58 +/-, 55 EVG, 16 PPG, 1 SHG, 497 SOG, 74 PIM
Everybody (in Detroit) Loves Raymond. He is as advertised, an intense two-way Swede with excellent vision and a punishing wrist shot. He plays in all situations and flanks Dylan Larkin and Alex Debrincat. Out of those three, he is arguably Detroit’s best forward.
The 2020 fourth-overall pick’s first NHL season was in 2021-22, and that extra year of development served him well, when he posted 57 points as a rookie. Playing a season less than Lafreniere, the development path for Raymond exposes how a year in a professional league equipped for development could have favored Lafreniere.
Raymond leads Lafreniere in career assists (by 33), points (26), and special-teams goals (12), short 60 games less than Lafreniere. He also posted a 72-point season for the Red Wings in 2023-24.
The catch is that Raymond had more leverage in contract negotiations. He’s worth the price tag, but Lafreniere’s deal can help the team nickel and dime while contending, and help acquire pieces when the Rangers look to extend their competitive window after 2025-26. Raymond is arguably the Red Wing best player, there is no question why he eclipsed the eight-million AAV plateau.
Jack Hughes (New Jersey Devils)
Contract: 8 years, $64,000,000/ $8 million AAV
Career: 318 GP, 117 G, 88 EVG, 174 A, 291 PTS, 29 PPG, -49 +/-, 44 PIM
These two careers are not so alike.
Hughes’ dynamo, swagger, and assist totals best Lafreniere. His goal-scoring is not far ahead of Lafrneiere considering he’ had a season ahead of Lafreniere’s played one more season. The No. 1 overall draft pick in 2019, a year ahead of Lafreniere and one spot ahead of New York forward Kaapo Kakko, makes for good theatre for the Hudson River rivalry.
But in 2023, Lafreniere showed he can just as much take over a playoff series as Hughes did against the Rangers a year earlier. Lafreniere did so against the eventual Stanley Cup champion. Hughes posted 11 points (six goals, five assists) in 12 games played in the 2023 Stanley Cup Pplayoffs, and Lafreniere notched 14 points (eight goals, six assists) in 16 games in ‘24.
Hughes at 8×8 is a major win for New Jersey, as the winger has already recorded a 99-point season in 2022-23. Staying healthy has been an issue though, since Hughes has only played 70 games once in six NHL seasons.
Lafreniere is short 135 points, but he is only behind by 38 goals and 11 games, the because he initiates physicality. Subtract Hughes’s 29 power-play goals, and only leads Lafreniere by nine goals.
Jersey’s guy will likely always lead the two in playmaking, with nearly a 100-point lead in apples alone over the No.1 across the river.
Seth Jarvis (Carolina Hurricanes)
Contract: 8 year, $63,200,000 million/ $7.9 million AAV
Career: 239 GP, 67 G, 85 A, 152 PTS, +43 +/-, 16 PPG, 3 SHG, 495 SOG, 48 PIM
Jarvis and Lafreniere had an exciting duel in the second round of the 2024 playoffs, when they combined for six goals in six games.
Jarvis is right on par with Lafreniere, although he plays on the Hurricanes first power play. It evens out though, as the Hurricanes forward also skates on the their third line, AKA not with the likes of Panarin and Trocheck.
The advantage for the Hurricanes it is believed to be the first NHL contract that includes differed payment, much like that of baseball mega-star Shohei Ohtani, where he will receive payments after his contract expires. It lowers his cap hit annually, and the negotiation kept his hit below teammate Andrei Svechnkikov’s $7.75 AAV.
Matt Boldy (Minnesota Wild)
Contract: 7 year, $49,000,000/ $7 million AAV
Career: 212 GP, 103 A, 182 PTS, +24 +/-, 24 PPG, 629 SOG
Boldy is homogenous to Lafreniere because of their physical drive and scoring sense. The Boston College product is tied with Lafreniere in career goals and leads him by 26 points.
The Milford, Mass. native has 24 power-play tallies. Subtracting always marginalizes the view between Lafreniere and his counterparts, but in this case, it puts both players almost dead even.
Boldy, a year behind Lafreniere, inked a deal that bests Lafreniere by $45,000 annually. It’s not an earth-shattering difference, as New York taxes also have to be accounted for.
Matty Beniers (Seattle Kraken)
Contract: 7-year, $49,980,000 million, $7.14 million AAV
Career: 177 GP, 44 G, 65 A, 109 PTS, 22 PPG, 320 SOG, +6 +/-, 2023 Calder Trophy
Beniers is two seasons behind Lafreniere, which seems like a massive jump right now, but that gap closes quickly when a youngster breaks out. We saw the Grand Canyon between Hughes and Lafreniere shrink, and that could very well happen for Beniers whose contract could already be the best on this list.
The No. 3 overall selection in 2022 is 130 games behind Lafreniere and just 35 goals and 47 points behind him. At $7.14 AAV for a player on a parallel statistical trajectory to Stutzle and Raymond, showed great foresight by general manager Ron Francis and the Kraken management.
Juraj Slafkovsky (Montreal Canadiens)
Contract: 8-year, $60,800,000/ $7.6 million AAV (begins in 2025-26)
Career: 128 GP, 25 G, 42 A, 67 PTS, -31 +/-, 17 EVG, 203 SOG
The player Lafreniere has the edge over by contract is Slafkovsky. The Slovakian forward earned an 8 x $7.6 contract, the same as Lafreniere with the maximum deal of an eighth year.
The risk is in the commitment. The 2022 first-overall pick broke out with a 50-point campaign last season, which took Lafreniere four seasons to achieve. He’s recorded seven points in seven games this season as well, but has he shown enough to earn $7.6 million per season for eight seasons based on this sample?
Quantitatively Lafreniere leads the 20-year-old in all stat categories but like Beniers, Slafkosvky could make his contract a steal of a deal.
