Why Alexis Lafreniere’s worrisome regression is major Rangers concern
In this disappointing 2024-25 season for the New York Rangers, nearly every key player on the roster has underachieved. Despite improvement since the start of the New Year, essentially all of the Rangers core has largely failed to measure up to past performance.
Some regressions are more concerning than others, however. Chief among those is the dip by Alexis Lafreniere, the 23-year-old former No. 1 overall draft pick whom the team invested in as a pillar of its future just a few months ago.
Lafreniere appeared to have put a halting start to his career behind him last season, when he broke out with NHL career highs in goals (28), assists (29) and points (57). He punctuated that effort by being perhaps the Rangers best forward in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, tying for the team lead with eight goals and adding six assists in 16 games, helping them reach the Eastern Conference Final. He appeared to be a star finally on the rise, at long last tapping into his high-end talent.
This season, Lafreniere has gone through some brutal dry spells and has 14 goals and 32 points in 55 games, despite remaining in the top six throughout.
So, after going from 21 points as a rookie to 31, then 39 and last season 57, there’s a good chance that Lafreniere will take a step back in production for the first time as a pro this season. It’s a rather stunning development, when so many foresaw a breakout 70-point or better season for him.
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Could Alexis Lafreniere’s 7-year extension be risky investment for Rangers
The Rangers front office agreed that Lafreniere’s star was on the rise. Looking to get ahead of Lafreniere potentially having a massive final season of his two-year, $4.6 million bridge contract, they signed him to a seven-year, $52.15 million extension in late October. At the time, it was largely viewed as a great contract for the club, and perhaps a short-sighted decision by the pending restricted free agent not to demand more.
That deal doesn’t kick in until 2025-26, but for this season at least, the decision to ink Lafreniere long term isn’t looking good. The right wing’s impact has been significantly diminished from where it was in 2023-24, with old questions of conditioning, commitment and poor defensive play re-emerging. Lafreniere has rarely been the highly-engaged, energetic, fiery forward of last season who attacked the net and spent plenty of time yapping at opponents.
Never a great defensive player, his deficiencies in that area have been hard to miss lately. An inexcusably lackdaisical backchecking effort against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Friday led directly to Rickard Rakell’s tying goal off the rush in an eventual 3-2 loss.
Facing the Columbus Blue Jackets the next day, the poor effort on defense continued. Lafreniere failed again to adequately backcheck on Justin Danforth’s first-period goal. He then appeared slow, disinterested or gassed getting back as Damon Severson set up James van Riemsdyk’s rush tally late in the second period for a 3-2 Blue Jackets lead. The Rangers would go on to win 4-3, but that did nothing to allay the concerns about Lafreniere.
He is a career-worst minus-13 on the season after being plus-14 over the previous three seasons.
The Blueshirts could live with some of the lapses if Lafreniere’s offense was keeping pace, but it isn’t. His 32 points in 55 games puts him on about a 48-point pace, which would mark the first time in his five NHL seasons that his scoring didn’t increase from season to season. Lafreniere had one goal in the past eight games before the two-week break for the 4 Nations Face-Off, and also went 13 games without scoring from early December to early January.
Dogged by questions about his fitness and skating coming into 2023-24, Lafreniere worked hard with his trainer to improve his speed and lower-body power that offseason. The result was a breakout season. But his surprising lack of burst in 2024-25 has revived those questions – and added another one.
It’s fair to speculate whether signing a long-term contract extension might have affected Lafreniere’s play – and level of hunger. Some might argue that he’s coasting now that he’s hit it big. Others could claim he’s feeling the pressure to live up to the money he’s set to start earning next season.
Both sentiments might be dead wrong. Maybe it’s somewhere in the middle. Whatever the case, all of those doubts will persist until – if – Lafreniere starts to resemble last season’s version of himself.
Rangers are desperate for Alexis Lafreniere to grow into a star
Certainly, there is pressure on Lafreniere. The Rangers aren’t an old team overall, but their top-six forward group is aging. The Blueshirts drafted forward Kaapo Kakko with the No. 2 overall pick in 2019 and Lafreniere at No. 1 in 2020. From that supposed draft bonanza, Kakko was traded earlier this season, and Lafreniere’s future, judging by the step back this season, is a bit grey.
Failing to extract at least one star player from those picks would be disastrous for the Rangers – or any organization – to overcome when planning for the near future. But let’s not get dramatic. Nobody’s saying Lafreniere, at 23, is heading down a terrible path. It’s just that he needs to pick up his level of play and consistency considerably.
Such expectations, however, are part-and-parcel to being taken first overall in a draft in which a player is deemed to be the far-and-away consensus top prospect. Lafreniere has not been the best player taken in the first round in 2020, with Tim Stutzle, Lucas Raymond and Seth Jarvis among the forwards whose young careers have so far exceeded Lafreniere’s.
Last season put to rest the idea that Lafreniere lacked the elite offensive skills of a No. 1 overall draft selection. The focus now, thanks to this so-so season, is on whether he possesses the drive to keep growing into the offensive force he seemed on the way to becoming in 2023-24. Such doubts would have been difficult to imagine after last spring’s playoffs, when he played with edge, skill and brash confidence in delivering big goals.
Playing defense isn’t an inherent talent – it’s simply a question of effort and desire. Right now, the Rangers have to at least be thinking about whether gaffes like the ones against Pittsburgh and Columbus are indicative of a larger problem with Lafreniere’s game and approach to his NHL career.
To be fair, metrics paint a mixed picture of Lafreniere’s impact at 5-on-5 this season. He’s posted an expected goal share of 50.1, below last season’s career-best 52.7 mark, per Natural Stat Trick, but still on the positive side. The Rangers have outchanced opponents 429-408 with him on ice at even strength, but they’ve also been outscored 45-41, including 25-15 in high-danger goals – no doubt one of those being Rakell’s.
And he’s not benefitting from usual linemates Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck having career seasons again this season. Remember, Panarin had a Hart Trophy-worthy season in 2023-24, finishing with 120 points, second most in Rangers history. And Trocheck played in the 2024 NHL All-Star Game and had 77 points. So, it’s not only Lafreniere whose numbers regressed this season.
The Blueshirts are undoubtedly crossing their fingers that Lafreniere, like so many other key Rangers, has simply been dragged down by this strange, disappointing season that could end with them missing the playoffs. They can only hope that he’ll bounce back later this season or next. The club can’t really afford to think any other way, given the financial stake they’ve taken in Lafreniere’s promise as a supposed future cornerstone of their roster.
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