Why Arthur Kaliyev experiment makes perfect sense for Rangers right now
Due, in part, to an unfortunate Filip Chytil injury, the newest member of the New York Rangers, Arthur Kaliyev, will make his Blueshirts debut Thursday against the New Jersey Devils. And while another injury is far from a positive for a struggling Rangers squad, an extended look at Kaliyev is an intriguing and sensible endeavor for New York in their current state of affairs.
The Rangers claimed the 23-year-old forward off waivers on Monday. He landed on waivers because the Los Angeles Kings needed to clear space on their roster for the return of forwards Trevor Lewis and Trevor Moore from injured reserve.
Kaliyev, who has yet to play in the NHL this season after breaking his clavicle in September, did not dress in New York’s 5-4 overtime loss to the Dallas Stars, although he did participate in both the morning skate and pregame warmups.
With Chytil sidelined by an upper-body injury sustained against the Stars and Chris Kreider already on IR with an upper-body issue, a path is cleared for Kaliyev to play on the third line against the Devils. He’ll slot in alongside Jonny Brodzinski and Brett Berard. Will Cuylle moves up from that line to take Kreider’s spot to the left of Mika Zibanejad and Reilly Smith.
Kaliyev also took Chytil’s spot on the second power-play unit at practice Wednesday.
The scouting report on Kaliyev tells of an imperfect player, but one that may have some untapped potential.
“Arthur has a great shot,” LA-based hockey insider Dennis Bernstein told Forever Blueshirts’ executive editor Jim Cerny on the Rink Rap podcast. “But the problem is, not a great skater, doesn’t really play defense, the attention to detail really isn’t there. I don’t think ‘Artie’ is a 25-goal scorer in this league because I don’t think he can play top-six minutes because of his speed and defensive game.”
Bernstein labeled Kaliyev as a “one-dimensional player,” with that one dimension being his strong shooting ability.
Still, the former second-round pick (No. 33 overall) in 2019 played at a half-point-per-game pace just two seasons ago, tallying 28 points and 56 games in 2022-23 and scoring 14 goals as a rookie in 2021-22.
With all that on the table, here’s why this season provides the perfect opportunity to experiment with Kaliyev in the top six.
Related: Joining Rangers is ‘dream come true’ for Arthur Kaliyev
Why Rangers should give Arthur Kaliyev extended run
Bernstein’s evaluation of Kaliyev doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that the Rangers stumbled on a hidden gem. But the truth is, nobody knows for sure.
Kaliyev was drafted in the early second round for a reason — an exciting offensive profile headlined by excellent shooting ability.
Granted, the Rangers of all teams should know that draft position does not automatically equate to NHL production. Look no further than former Blueshirts draft picks Lias Anderson (seventh overall in 2017), Vitali Kravtsov (ninth overall in 2018), or even the recently-traded Kaapo Kakko (second overall in that same 2019 draft) — all of whom disappointed in comparison to their pre-draft scouting profile.
But it’s not Kaliyev’s once-valued prospect status that makes this a worthwhile endeavor. It’s a combination of his skillset and the Rangers’ current position in the Eastern Conference that makes it worth doing.
Playing Arthur Kaliyev is low-risk, high-reward situation for Rangers
Even with earning points in three of their last four contests (2-1-), the Rangers currently sit four points out of the last wild card spot in the East and 18 points shy of first place in the Metropolitan Division.
A playoff appearance is still plausible, but the on-ice performance over the last two months (6-16-1) does not scream postseason contender.
To further that point, MoneyPuck gives the Rangers a 6.3 percent chance of making the playoffs and lists them as one of nine teams with a zero percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup. That’s a far fall from grace for the reigning Presidents’ Trophy winners who entered the season with a “Cup-or-bust” mindset.
Being a non-contender for the Stanley Cup isn’t a good thing, but it does afford the Rangers more flexibility and creativity with their lineup.
As long as Igor Shesterkin, Adam Fox, and Alexis Lafreniere are inked long-term, it’s unlikely the Blueshirts enter a full-on rebuild. In fact, with savvy moves by general manager Chris Drury, the Rangers could leap right back into contention next season.
Which makes this season a unique opportunity to take risks that could yield long-term rewards. Case in point — Arthur Kaliyev.
If Kaliyev continues to disappoint, it’s no skin off the Rangers back. His cheap one-year, $825,000 contract expires at the end of the season and New York can release him at any point this season without suffering any cap penalty.
If Kaliyev struggles, it won’t be the reason the Rangers miss the playoffs. They’ve already put themselves in this hole and have far bigger culprits to address from that perspective.
But if Kaliyev does take a leap and becomes a player Drury wants to keep long-term, they’ll have first crack at retaining a relatively young forward who’s still a restricted free agent at season’s end and likely wouldn’t command an exorbitant contract.
“I would advocate [for it] — who cares,” NHL insider Frank Seravalli told Morning Cuppa Hockey on Tuesday. “You’re the Rangers, you’ve got tons of cap space, find out. Let’s take a risk.”
Unless Kaliyev is blocking the path of a homegrown prospect, say Brennan Othmann for instance, it’s hard to see how giving him playing time would come back to bite the Rangers in any meaningful way.
Rangers could benefit from another shoot-first player
The Rangers have plenty of skaters who, when playing at their best, are excellent facilitators.
Fox is one of the best playmaking defensemen in the game and Artemi Panarin is as smooth with the puck as can be. But it does feel like the Blueshirts could use one or two more skaters with shoot-first attitudes.
And when they have gotten players who fit that bill, it’s typically worked out pretty well.
Chytil, who currently leads all Rangers skaters with 9.33 shots on goal per 60 minutes, has been a bright spot when healthy and has been rightfully lauded for how aggressive he plays on the offensive end.
Panarin’s career-best season, recording 49 goals and 120 points in 2023-24, came with a team-best 11.02 SOG/60, a marked leap from the season prior where he finished ninth on the squad with 7.61.
Even take Frank Vatrano, who became a fan-favorite after coming over to New York via trade halfway through the 2021-22 season and thrived next to Kreider and Zibanejad. Vatrano ranked second on the team with 10.0 SOG/60 in 22 games, trailing only Kreider, who tallied 52 goals that season.
Granted, these are all established NHL players with more complete careers than Kaliyev, but the correlation between production and shot volume should not be ignored.
With increased playing time compared to his usage with the Kings, perhaps he can take on a role similar to that of Vatrano’s tenure. It’s worth noting that Vatrano has carved out a very solid NHL career for himself thanks to an elite shot and high shot volume, despite very poor defensive metrics each of the last three seasons. Vatrano just landed a new three-year, $18 million contract with the Anaheim Ducks last week.
Rangers may be sellers at NHL trade deadline
Barring an inspired turnaround, the Rangers are trending to be sellers when the NHL trade deadline rolls around on March 7.
One could argue they’ve already begun to sell. The trading away of Kakko and Jacob Trouba might just be the start of a roster overhaul.
Drury reportedly made Kreider, the longest-tenured Blueshirt, available for trade in a memo sent to 31 NHL GMs. Jimmy Vesey is 32 and has been floated in trade rumors with his contract set to expire at the end of the season, and the same can be said for offseason acquisition Reilly Smith.
There’s even been some rumblings surrounding Zibanejad, with the Vancouver Canucks reportedly rejecting a one-for-one trade for J.T. Miller.
Point being, it certainly sounds like the Rangers may subtract from their forward group come March, leaving major openings to be filled.
Even if playoff hopes dwindle, you’d still like to see those spots be filled in a meaningful way. That could mean a couple of call-ups from the Hartford Wolf Pack, but it could also mean giving a once-revered prospect like Kaliyev a chance to shine in the top six.
If an exodus is coming, the Rangers will need young, unproven depth to slot in, and even with 188 NHL games already under his belt, I’d still throw Kaliyev under that umbrella.
Related: New York Rangers trade rumors: Canucks ‘adore’ young defenseman — NHL insder
Change of scenery can be good
Sometimes all a player needs is a change of scenery to regain confidence and unlock his full potential.
The Rangers have been on the opposite end of this with Pavel Buchnevich thriving in a top-line role with the St. Louis Blues after being traded away from New York. Perhaps now they can benefit from it.
Kaliyev, a Staten Island native, returns home to New York City where he’ll look to find greater success than his disappointing four-year tenure in Los Angeles.
Kaliyev struggled to escape a fourth-line role, averaging just 12:08 TOI per game in his 188-game Kings career. That’s on top of being in a more conservative system to begin with as Los Angeles primarily utilized a 1-3-1 neutral zone trap during Kaliyev’s tenure.
Neither is a great fit for an offense-minded forward who struggles on the defensive end.
Based on the morning skate, Kaliyev looks to slot in with the third line, which was receiving ample ice time prior to Chytil’s injury. If he’s able to stay in the lineup consistently, he may even graduate into a top-six role if there are major trade departures to the forward group.
And although the Rangers have primarily played a 1-3-1 under Laviolette, they’re more aggressive and take more risks offensively compared to the Kings.
So though Kaliyev is not likely to blossom into a superstar now that he’s joined the Rangers, there’s no harm in giving him a chance to carve out a role for himself and become a potential piece of the future.
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