New York Rangers forwards 2024-25 ceiling & floor projections
The New York Rangers begin their 2024-25 season on Oct. 9 when they visit the Pittsburgh Penguins. The group, largely the same as last season, can only achieve its full potential by winning the Stanley Cup; otherwise, the season will be considered a failure.
Last season saw some young players take steps forward in their development while many core skaters posted above-average and career years.
Artemi Panarin reached the 100-point plateau for the first time, setting career highs in every stat category (49 goals, 71 assists, 120 points). He finished fourth in the NHL in scoring, and his 120 points were second most in Rangers history.
His two linemates, Vincent Trocheck, and Alexis Lafreniere, formed the best trio in the NHL last season, combining for 46 goals, according to Natural Stat Trick. Trocheck and Lafreniere, like Panarin, each established NHL career highs in points.
That overshadowed Chris Kreider’s third 30-goal season in a row and Mika Zibanejad’s average 70-point season. The inseparable twosome will likely unite with 2023 Stanley Cup champion Reilly Smith, who should get back to form following a dip in production with the Penguins last season.
The club has two elite lines that can be interchanged based on matchups. It’s a good problem to have. The offense is that deep.
Questions lie heavily within what a scoring-checking unit of Kaapo Kakko, Will Cuylle, and Filip Chytil can muster, each facing challenges with a new season on the horizon. The fourth line could mix fan sensation Matt Rempe and versatile Jimmy Vesey along with experienced sandpaper center Sam Carrick or in-house underdog story Jonny Brodzinski.
Related: Where Rangers, Metro rivals stand ahead of 2024-25 NHL season
Ceiling, floor projections for New York Rangers forwards
Here’s a look at the anticipated performance and point forecasts for the Rangers forward group in this championship or bust campaign.
It should be noted that injuries to Panarin and Vesey in the preseason could alter some of the projections.
Artemi Panarin
Ceiling: 50 goals, 80 assists, 130 points
Floor: 40 goals, 60 assists, 100 points
The Rangers don’t necessarily need the “Bread Man” to hit the 130-point mark, but he showed what he is capable of when Lafreniere and Trocheck are the play drivers and he can get himself into prime scoring positions.
He was on pace to break the 100-point mark in 2019-20 before the coronavirus pandemic shut down the NHL season early, and he blasted his career highs over the moon last season.
Panarin, who turns 33 on Oct. 30, can finish as one of the League’s top scorers. He was one goal shy of 50 last season, and his passing ability is absurd. He has finished as a top-four scorer in the NHL twice and is fourth in the League in points in his five seasons with the Rangers (461). That’s 36 shy of 2022 Stanley Cup champion Nathan MacKinnon, who’s third. Panarin’s ceiling is a top-three scorer and a Hart Trophy candidate.
The floor for Panarin would be below his average as a Blueshirt (minus the shortened 2020-21 season) of 101 points a season. That would likely occur from injury or a drastic change from his 16.2 percent shooting last season. It’s possible, but the concern with No. 10 won’t be his regular-season performance.
Of course, the lower-body injury that’s forced Panarin to exit two preseason games early could affect his numbers, too, this season.
Alexis Lafreniere
Ceiling: 40 goals, 45 assists, 85 points
Floor: 30 goals, 30 assists, 60 points
That could be a lowball or a highball. The first player taken in the 2020 NHL Draft broke out in his fourth NHL season at age 22, finishing with 57 points (28 goals, 29 assists) and an excellent 2024 Stanley Cup Playoff run (eight goals, six assists, 14 points).
But consistency can kill the cat. His vision, forecheck, puck hunting, heavy shot, and pairing with two of the club’s best forwards have No. 13 poised to take another step in his promising career. He was within two goals and one assist of what I’d expect his floor to be the same overall output as last season.
The fly in the ointment could be his skating. His vision, positioning, and edge have always set him apart from his peers. But his skating isn’t superb. That won’t detract from the level he has reached, but it may affect where he can go.
It goes to say, that NHL history informs us that point producers can overcome height, shot power or other vices to become great.
Vincent Trocheck
Ceiling: 30 goals, 55 assists, 85 points
Floor: 20 goals, 45 assists, 65 points
The 31-year-old center put the League on notice with his performance in 2023-24. As a matchup-based 1B center and a player the Blueshirts made a long-term commitment to in the summer of 2022, Trocheck will either remain at the bar he set, surpass that, or finish somewhere in between.
He posted 64 points in 2022-23, then bumped that to 77 last season, playing between Lafreniere and Panarin. He’s suited up in all 187 games the Rangers have played since signing him; that includes last season’s playoffs, when he was arguably the best skater on a team that got within two wins of the Stanley Cup Final.
He’s all over the ice, in your face, wins well over half his face-offs and will burn you with consistency and clutch play. I’d take the ceiling next season.
Chris Kreider
Ceiling: 50 goals, 25 assists, 75 points
Floor: 30 goals, 20 assists, 50 points
For several seasons, Kreider played Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. But since his 52-goal season in 2021-22, there have been few if any gaps in his game. He is third in the NHL in power-play goals in the past three seasons (52), seventh in goals (127), and tied for first in short-handed goals (9).
Kreider is the Rangers’ all-time playoff goal scorer (48), third in regular-season goals (304), and will likely become top the club’s all-time power-play goals leader this season; his 110 PPGs are six short of Camille Henry’s team record (116).
He is the heart and soul of the team. Can he hit 50 goals again? If not, 40 or 30+ will help the Rangers finish atop the Metropolitan Division again.
Mika Zibanejad
Ceiling: 40 goals, 50 assists, 90 points
Floor: 25 goals, 45 assists, 70 points
Zibanejad is a curious case. The 31-year-old is signed through 2029-30 to be the Rangers’ premiere 1C. He scored 41 goals in 57 games in the COVID-shortened 2019-20 season, the most since Rick Nash in 2014-15.
He made up for a slow start in 2020-21 and finished with 50 points (24 goals, 26 assists) in 56 games. He drove the bus in the 2022 playoffs with 24 points (10 goals, 14 assists); that carried into 2022-23, when he set an NHL career high with 91 points (39 goals, 52 assists).
It’s been a downtrend since then. You know what you’ll get from Zibanejad, but the first-line center on a perennial championship favorite needs to produce guaranteed totals. His last two post-seasons were problematic (four goals in 23 playoff games in 2022-23 and 2023-24).
He’s scored 40 goals once and had 50 assists twice with the Rangers, so there’s reason to believe he can again. What is true is that 70 points is not enough. Our next player might help Zibanejad reach 85+ points again.
Reilly Smith
Ceiling: 25 goals, 30 assists, 55 points
Floor: 15 goals, 25 assists, 40 points
Smith could post what he did last season in Pittsburgh (40 points), a down-year turned trend and what you see is what you get. But he wasn’t flanking Zibanejad and Kreider.
He had 56 points (26 goals, 30 assists) with the Vegas Golden Knights in 2022-23, then scored the Stanley Cup-winning goal. That should forecast what he will do on the defending Presidents’ Trophy-winning team’s top unit. Nos. 20 and 93 will have a consistent linemate in Smith, who can’t perform worse than Blake Wheeler did as the top-line right wing before injuries ended his season.
Will Cuylle
Ceiling: 20 goals, 20 assists 40 points
Floor: 13 goals, 10 assists, 23 points
The 22-year-old could be full of more surprises. Like Kreider, his value isn’t all in his point totals. Cuylle racked up the seventh most hits in the NHL as a rookie last season (247).
With that said, the third line is crucial to the Ranger’s success this season. It’s a unit that has lacked identity since the club entered its contention window.
Cuylle is projected to play left wing with center Filip Chytil and right wing Kaapo Kakko, who also have a lot to prove this season. Whether it’s battling against the sophomore slump or turning a questionable third line into a checking and scoring contributor, Cuylle will be a major factor.
There is a lot of boom or bust potential, I can’t see how he can’t hit 20 goals, 20 assists, or both and post a solid 40 points thisseason.
Filip Chytil
Ceiling: 30 goals, 40 assists, 70 points
Floor: 20 goals, 20 assists, 40 points/LTIR
The third longest-tenured Ranger is set to, once again, overcome injury hardship to become a high-octane scoring threat.
Chytil has it all — the speed, the skill. But to reach his full potential, he has to stay healthy. He is a League-wide sleeper who could hit major career marks if he can stay on the ice. The 25-year-old is one of the most exciting players on a team with a Norris winner, Vezina winner, and Hart candidate.
It will either come together or be another frustrating season. Not because of expectations, but rather because we know what he can be.
Kaapo Kakko
Ceiling: 20 goals, 25 assists, 45 points
Floor: 10 goals, 10 assists, 20 points / TDL deal
The second player selected in the 2019 draft may never live up to that billing, but he’d be a fine contributor to the Rangers third line with a 45-point season. His puck possession and the chemistry he’s had in the past with Chytil could keep him in New York for the cheap.
The floor is another disjointed season that results in a deadline deal. Not because he didn’t hit 50 goals as projected on draft day, but because he is entering his sixth NHL season. There aren’t any more hall passes for the 23-year-old forward.
Based on his track record it doesn’t seem like he’ll break out, but his 2022-23 season should give fans optimism that when his game is at its best, he can put forth a solid campaign.
Jimmy Vesey
Ceiling: 13 assists, 13 assists, 26 points
Floor: 8 goals, 8 assists, 16 points
Vesey is an overlooked commodity on the Rangers. He’s posted back-to-back 25-point seasons since re-joining the team on a PTO in 2022, and has been a fixture on the fourth line as a productive veteran.
The one-time sought-after college free agent turned grinder with a scoring touch projects to do exactly what he’s done the past two seasons on Broadway. At least as soon as he returns from a lower-body injury.
Matt Rempe
Ceiling: 10 goals, 10 assists, 20 points
Floor: Below 10 points
Rempe was the story of last season, but he’s out to prove that he can play a full season in the modern NHL. That means he can do more than be 6-foot-8 and fight.
If Rempe can put up double digits in goals and/or assists, it would be a major success for a player who worked tirelessly in the summer to round out his game. As for his fighting record, he’s pretty much challenged every NHL heavyweight he’s faced. I can’t imagine a ceiling higher than what he’s set in that realm.
Sam Carrick
Ceiling: 10 goals, 10 assists, 20 points
Floor: 4 goals, 6 assists, 10 points
Carrick got a three-year contract less for his scoring than for his PK work and physical play. But he scored 10 goals last season and 11 in 2021-22, so there’s some skill there.
The floor could get pretty low, especially if he splits time with Brodzinski centering the fourth line.
Jonny Brodzinski
Ceiling: 5 goals, 10 assists, 15 points
Floor: AHL
Carrick doesn’t have an overwhelming resume for us to presume he’ll earn the 4C over Brodzinski, whose energy, hard shot, and overall play when Chytil and Kakko were injured last season earned him 57 regular-season games and three in the playoffs.
This may be Brodzinski’s chance to earn a full-time position on an NHL club, or he may return to be the Hartford Wolf Pack captain, where he will likely be one of the best players in the AHL — as he was before his recall last season. He’s averaged more than a point a game in parts of four seasons with the Pack.
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