Rangers must pay pending RFA K’Andre Miller based on track record, not potential
The New York Rangers are facing a decision on whether to re-sign young defenseman K’Andre Miller for the long term. Ultimately, the choice for the Blueshirts should be an easy one – as long as they enter into such an agreement with clear eyes on what it is they’re paying for.
Miller has flashed his amazing physical gifts and tantalizing skill set off and on since former general manager Jeff Gorton traded up four spots in the 2018 NHL Draft to select the University of Wisconsin product No. 22 overall. Miller never played in the minors, making his debut in the pandemic-altered 2020-21 season and playing 53 games. He’s now 343 games — and counting — deep into his NHL career.
In that time, fans, media and perhaps the front office have often viewed him as a top pair defenseman-in-waiting. Miller’s size (6-foot-5, 210 pounds), strength, mobility and supposedly untapped offensive potential surely are tantalizing, as his play. Sometimes.
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K’Andre Miller hasn’t reached elite status – and might never do so
Miller, of course, has yet to cooperate with that narrative. He took a step back after a 43-point 2022-23 season, compiling 30 points last season and struggling with his play and life off the ice, stepping away from the team briefly for what was termed “personal reasons.” He later courageously opened up about his battles with mental health.
It was more of the same early in 2024-25, Miller being unable to maintain consistency and sometimes making costly gaffes, even as he also turned in games that again evoked the potential promise of a star blueliner waiting to get out. He has a disappointing 13 points (four goals, nine assists) in 49 games this season.
Unfortunately for the Rangers, time has all but run out on their evaluation period of this polarizing player. Miller’s two-year, $7.7 million bridge contract expires this summer, making him a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. The Rangers can either tie the 25-year-old up for the long haul at fair value or trade him.
The choice, though, shouldn’t be difficult. Parting with Miller would leave a massive void on the left side of the top four, one that perhaps could start to resemble the sinkhole at top-six right wing that has forced the team to spend resources at the trade deadline to fill it for three years now. With their entire left side facing uncertainty – Ryan Lindgren seems likely to be traded or leave as a UFA this summer, and Zac Jones and Urho Vaakanainen project as third-pair players at best – the loss of Miller’s durable, consistent presence seems all but unthinkable.
The caveat here is that the Rangers should at least attempt to pay Miller for what he is now, as opposed to what they think he could become. There’s a good chance that Miller’s ceiling is that of a solid, minutes-eating, second-pair defenseman – not a Victor Hedman clone-to-be. The Blueshirts would have to be fully aware of what they’re buying, which could be a player that never fully puts all of his considerable talents together.
Miller’s camp is sure to disagree with such an assessment of his value. Agent Ian Pulver – who also represents jilted ex-Rangers forward Barclay Goodrow – can point to Miller’s analytics this season as evidence of his indispensability. Through the season’s first 28 games, Miller posted an expected goal share of 50.0 – respectably breaking even, with the Rangers also getting outscored 27-21 with him on the ice at 5-on-5, per Natural Stat Trick.
Since Dec. 20, though, Miller has posted an individual 69.2 expected goal share over 21 games covering 72 minutes, with the Blueshirts out-chancing opponents 43-24 and 19-5 in the high-danger category. That date represents the first game for Miller’s new defense partner, Will Borgen, in a Rangers sweater. Much has made of how Miller has settled down since the arrival of the former Seattle Kraken, who signed a five-year extension not long after being acquired in the Kaapo Kakko trade.
Borgen has posted a 46.8 expected goal share in 84 minutes without Miller since arriving, strongly illustrating that it’s Miller who has carried the partnership. The duo has a combined 48.2 expected goal share in 332:36.
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Polarizing play of K’Andre Miller will make this a complex contract negotiation
Ultimately, this negotiation jumps out as a textbook instance of the need for healthy compromise. The Rangers will be in a serious spot without Miller’s contributions next season and going forward. At the same time, Miller’s representatives lack any sort of irrefutable evidence that the player is an emerging star. He’s yet to fashion a dominant season, and there is simply too much up-and-down in his game to label him as a top-pair force who should be paid accordingly.
Will an honest and well-intentioned back-and-forth happen? Pulver and his team recognize there’s a danger in agreeing to, say, six years at $6.5 million per, given Miller’s package of obviously elite abilities. Should the defenseman actually fulfill his considerable potential, the agent knows he will have sold off a No. 1 or No. 2 D-man at a discount – especially with the confirmation that the salary cap will rise at a significant rate over the next three seasons, and likely into the future.
Pulver is also aware that asking for Victor Hedman or Quinn Hughes money – about $8 million per for both players – isn’t supported by his client’s body of work. And the Rangers will still hold leverage and control for two more seasons, given that Miller will be an RFA, albeit one with arbitration rights that neither side wants to exercise.
The Rangers need Miller, even if his occasional dips in performance prove to be a career-long characteristic and not something he’ll definitely outgrow. It’s also in Miller’s interest to work out a deal with the team that drafted him, given his comfort level with a defense partner that might be paving the way for him to reach another level. Then there’s the possibility that Miller is Adam Fox’s partner in waiting on the top pair.
Can the sides come to an agreement, either during the season or this summer? It might come down to whether team and player are able to partially accept each other’s viewpoint on who Miller is, and what he might become. The Rangers might not get him for purely second-pair cash, and Miller also won’t get paid as a top player at his position.
The Rangers’ remaining 27 regular-season games should go a long way toward determining which version of Miller the club will be dealing with as it looks for a long-term commitment to keep him on Broadway.
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