Why Rangers signing Ryan Lindgren to 1-year prove-it deal was best option
Barring any wild offseason shenanigans, it appears as if the New York Rangers roster is set to begin the 2024-25 season. The Rangers came to terms with Ryan Lindgren on Tuesday, nearly 72 hours before a scheduled arbitration hearing, well-surpassing the $3.6 million qualifying offer to bring back the 26-year-old defenseman on a one-year, $4.5 million contract.
Perhaps it’s a larger AAV deal than some expected, particularly with Lindgren coming off arguably his worst season in the NHL. He doesn’t get term and will become an unrestricted free agent next offseason, but that’s a substantial $1.5 million pay raise.
He may have posted a plus-22 rating, leading all Rangers skaters during the regular season, but analytics tell a much darker tale. Lindgren posted a 45.02 xGF% during the regular season (per Natural Stat Trick). It’s not just the lowest mark of his NHL career (excluding an inaugural 2019-20 season where he played just five games) — it’s the worst of any qualified Rangers’ defensemen, including the highly-criticized Jacob Trouba (48.52 xGF%).
As Vince Mercogliano of USA Today keenly observed, those metrics dropped even further during the postseason when Lindgren struggled to fight through a cracked rib and posted a 34.82 xGF%, the worst among Rangers defensemen and fourth-worst on the team, ahead of only Barclay Goodrow, Blake Wheeler, and Johnny Brodzinski.
It even affected his numbers next to long-time partner Adam Fox, with the duo posting a 46.5 xGF% in 65 games and over 911 minutes together. Again, that’s not just the lowest mark of their careers — it’s the first time that the Lindgren-Fox pairing has finished with an xGF% below 50, snapping a streak that dated back to Fox’s rookie campaign in 2019-20.
So how could a $4.5 million deal for arguably the worst Blueshirts defenseman last season be a good thing? Let’s dive in.
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Rangers smart to give Ryan Lindgren 1-year deal
A couple of years ago, a long-term Lindgren extension would have seemed like a no-brainer. He was an indispensable piece of the blue line, playing tough, shutdown defense and ranking in the top 15th percentile defensively for three consecutive seasons from 2020-21 to 2022-23.
Plus, it felt like no other Rangers defenseman got the most out of the ultra-talented Fox quite like Lindgren did. His stable, stay-at-home play allowed Fox to extend offensively and utilize his playmaking ability, knowing he had a reliable defenseman to cover him. It doesn;t hurt that their partnership goes back to their teenage years with the United States National Team Development Program.
But after this most recent season, it’s hard to argue that Lindgren’s as vital to the team’s future as he once appeared to be. As general manager Chris Drury looks at things this offseason, there are simply too many questions surrounding Lindgren’s play to confidently invest in a multi-year contract.
The down year should frankly be the least of the Rangers’ concerns. Lindgren has built enough of a resume in his five full seasons in the NHL to indicate that he’s a much better player than what he showed last season, and very well could bounce back in 2024-25.
His injury history and playstyle, however, are a much different story. Lindgren’s just 26 years old, but that body has seen some wear and tear well beyond its years.
Lindgren’s willingness to sacrifice his body, put himself in harm’s way, and play through pain is, ironically, what makes re-upping with the 2022-23 Steven McDonald Extra Effort Award winner such a risky endeavor.
Whether it’s embracing a physical game or just plain old bad luck, Lindgren seems to consistently be on the wrong side of big hits and flying pucks.
Even before he cracked his rib in Game 6 of the second round against the Carolina Hurricanes, Lindgren had a few injury scares this past season, most notably after a scary-looking hit by Jean-Gabriel Pageau against the boards in mid-March, which ultimately sidelined him for a couple of weeks.
The year prior, he missed 17 of the final 23 games of the regular season ahead of the Blueshirts’ first-round playoff exit versus the New Jersey Devils.
And back in 2022? He suffered an ankle injury against the Washington Capitals after taking a hit from Nick Jensen, playing through it during the team’s run to the Eastern Conference Final.
Considering all the nasty hits he took this past season, it’s astounding he only missed six games. His willingness to play through pain is beyond impressive. But it doesn’t exactly make him the most enticing candidate for a long-term contract.
Lindgren stepped into a larger role as a 21-year-old back in 2019-20 and has been a top-pair defenseman for the past five seasons. He’s missed 19 or more games in three of those five seasons, averaging 65.6 games per year. Even when he’s not missing games, you have to wonder if the physical attrition affects his play on the ice.
Age played more of a factor here, but the Rangers should remember how poorly the Marc Staal and Dan Girardi contracts aged once their bodies started to betray them. Like Lindgren, both were stalwarts defensively who were more than willing to sacrifice the body. Lindgren may be younger than they were when their play started to decline, but you still have to wonder what he’ll look like three years from now if he keeps taking such a physical toll every season.
The Rangers clearly still value what he brings to the table. And let’s be clear, they should. Every good team needs a gritty player like Lindgren. And when he’s right, he’s an excellent defenseman.
There’s no need to give up on him just yet. He’s shown enough over the past few years to earn another chance to rebound and revert back to his elite defensive ways. Plus, now that the free agency wave has come and gone, it’s not like there’s anyone actively available that has anywhere close to the upside Lindgren has. If the Rangers want to upgrade defensively, they’ll likely have to wait until before the trade deadline.
At the same time, the leash on Lindgren has to be shorter than it’s ever been before. That’s what makes the one-year deal so optimal. He’ll have a chance to perform well and make a strong case for remaining in New York, but if poor play continues or injuries rear their ugly head again, Drury can cut ties and go in a different direction at the end of the season.
Yes, the $4.5 million AAV is probably higher than it would’ve been had Lindgren gotten multiple years, but that’s a worthwhile trade-off. The Rangers still have $1.4 million in cap space, which can accrue to roughly $6.3 million by the trade deadline. That should mean making a major deadline add is still in play.
It’s also crucial to note that the one-year contract will allow Drury to prioritize Igor Shesterkin, Alexis Lafreniere, and K’Andre Miller next offseason, each of whom will be due for new (probably expensive) deals following the 2024-25 season. Even if Lindgren does put together a strong season, that trio is more important to the current and future success of the Blueshirts — if Lindgren has to be a cap casualty in the process, that’s something the team can ultimately live with, though it should be noted, there’s no internal candidate ready to replace Lindgren in the lineup.
But if the Rangers want Lindgren back, there’s a path for that, too, once they have an idea what Shesterkin, Lafreniere and Miller will be paid.
So while Lindgren’s $4.5 million cap hit is nearly $1 million more than the qualifying offer, it still leaves the Blueshirts plenty of room to make additions at the deadline and leaves them free to assess major contracts next offseason, all the while giving the front office one more season to evaluate a player whose future is hard to project at the moment.
That’s about as good as it gets, all things considered.
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